From an abundance of sampling (“First Class”; “Super Freaky Girl”; “Wait For U”) to quotables like “don't tell me that you model if you ain't been in Vogue.” 2022 has been quite the year on the songwriting front. Here, we’re breaking down what the nominations for Song of the Year could look like come Nominations Day.

As a reminder, Record of the Year is awarded to the artists, producers, engineers, and mixers. Song of the Year is awarded to the songwriter(s) who created the lyrics and melodies of the composition.

SURE BETS

Historically, there has been much overlap between Record of the Year and Song of the Year. Just last year, seven of the ROTY-nominated songs received nods in Song of the Year. The songs that are frontrunners for Record of the Year are most likely to show up in Song of the Year. Expect to see “Break My Soul” (Beyoncé), “Easy On Me” (Adele), “As It Was” (Harry Styles), “About Damn Time” (Lizzo), and “Bad Habit” (Steve Lacy) in this category come November 15. As for “All Too Well (10 Minute Version)” (Taylor Swift), the song has a much stronger chance for Song of the Year given the emphasis on the new lyrics. Nonetheless, if the song gets in here, it’ll likely show up in ROTY as well. There’s also “You And Me On The Rock” from four-time SOTY nominee Brandi Carlile which is almost guaranteed to get a nom here if history is anything to go by.

STRONG SHOTS

“We Don’t Talk About Bruno” (Encanto Cast) and “The Heart Part 5” (Kendrick Lamar) both have solid shots at both Record and Song of the Year. The former will be fighting an uphill battle in both categories, but it has all the makings of a typical General Field nominee. As for Kendrick, there’s definitely a very plausible scenario in which “The Heart Part 5,” a primarily lyrical and visual feat, gets in Song of the Year but misses Record of the Year. Other songs with slim Record of the Year chances that have slightly better shots at recognition in Song of the Year include “Glimpse of Us” (Joji) and “Something in the Orange” (Zach Bryan). On the other hand, songs with stronger Record of the Year chances that may sneak into Song of the Year include “First Class” (Jack Harlow) and “Wait For U” (Future, Drake & Tems).

Overlap isn’t always the name of the game. “Circles Around This Town” (Maren Morris) and “Hrs & Hrs” (Muni Long) could both end up in the Final 10 to champion the singer-songwriters of the industry in two genres that have struggled in the General Field in recent years.

SLEEPER PICKS

Billie Eilish has been nominated in Song of the Year for the past three ceremonies, so even though “TV” came and went, don’t underestimate its chances here. Ed Sheeran pulled off a nod here with "Bad Habits” last year, and he could do it again with “Shivers.” If the Academy goes all in for Bad Bunny this year, expect to see “Tití Me Preguntó” in the lineup. Lady Gaga has been nominated twice in this category for soundtrack songs and she could very well make it three with “Hold My Hand” given the Academy’s love for her. Also, look out for “Paper Flowers” (Alicia Keys & Brandi Carlile) which is helmed by the same artists that scored a nomination here last year for “A Beautiful Noise.” Finally, “abcdefu” (GAYLE) could be a chance for the Academy to acknowledge what TikTok has done for the new generation of songwriters.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

“Break My Soul” (Beyoncé)

“Easy On Me” (Adele)

“The Heart Part 5” (Kendrick Lamar)

“About Damn Time” (Lizzo)

“Bad Habit” (Steve Lacy)

“As It Was” (Harry Styles)

“All Too Well (10 Minute Version)” (Taylor Swift)

“You And Me On The Rock” (Brandi Carlile)

“We Don’t Talk About Bruno” (Encanto Cast)

“Something in the Orange” (Zach Bryan)

ALT: “abcdefu” (GAYLE) OR “First Class” (Jack Harlow)