This year’s slate of Best New Artist nominees could combine artists who have been around for several years (Mitski; Denzel Curry; Latto) with breakout stars who exploded onto the scene via viral TikTok hits (GAYLE). Moreover, the increasing dominance of reggaeton, K-Pop, and afrobeats opens up the field even more. Let’s break down what the 2023 Best New Artist Grammys class could look like come November 15. This year, the field is wide open, so it really is anyone’s game.

SURE BETS

This year’s frontrunners are Latto, Dove Cameron, and Zach Bryan. Latto is looking to follow in the footsteps of Megan Thee Stallion and Lauryn Hill to become the third female rapper to be crowned Best New Artist. “Big Energy” is now the longest-charting song by a female rapper in Hot 100 history, so she definitely made enough of a splash in 2022 to take this award home. Thanks to a successful transition from Disney to mainstream pop bookmarked by the hit single “Boyfriend,” Dove Cameron is looking to secure her first Grammy nomination. It also doesn’t hurt that both Latto and Dove Cameron have been nominated in equivalent Best New Artist categories at virtually every other music awards show this season. As for Zach Bryan, the acclaimed Americana/country singer-songwriter experienced a commercial and critical breakout year with his major label debut album American Heartbreak. Lainey Wilson is another country name that has a serious shot at landing nom here.

Muni Long and Joji would also be expected additions to the Final 10. Both artists’ profiles have been rising for years and with “Hrs & Hrs” and “Glimpse of Us,” respectively, they each have an undeniable hit to bring to the table.

STRONG SHOTS

Brazilian superstar Anitta, rising pop star Tate McRae, and alternative R&B maestro Omar Apollo all have strong chances of appearing in the final Best New Artist lineup. Each artist released an album this year and experienced significant boosts in commercial success and general fame as a result.

Also watch out for Blxst, who will likely appear across the genre categories for his own Before You Go album and his work on Kendrick Lamar’s Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers, and Mitski, a much acclaimed and beloved alt-pop singer-songwriter who is anything but a new artist. But, hey! It’s the Grammys, what can you do?

SLEEPER PICKS

Remember, it really is anyone’s game this year. GAYLE, Little Simz, BRELAND, PinkPantheress, Fireboy DML, Kim Petras, Ckay, and Glorilla have all had particularly strong years, so any of them could make it in.

Also consider Wet Leg, Conan Gray, Rina Sawayama, Orville Peck, Denzel Curry, and Black Country, New Road.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Latto

Dove Cameron

Zach Bryan

Muni Long

Joji

GAYLE

Blxst

Omar Apollo

Anitta

Lainey Wilson

ALT: Mitski OR BRELAND