We are exactly one week away from the 65th Annual Grammy Awards. Yawn. I mean, yay! We’ll all tune in next Sunday night to see if the Recording Academy actually rewards the best music of the past year, or just hands out awards to whatever drivel most closely aligns with their historically white and elitist understanding of artistic authenticity. How fun.

This year, Beyoncé leads the nominations once again with a staggering 9 nods, eight of which are for her stunning Renaissance album which The Bulletin named as the best album of 2022. Queen Bey will very likely break the record for most Grammy wins of all time come next Sunday, but all eyes are on the Album of the Year race. Having lost the biggest Grammy category on her three previous bids, could Renaissance finally carry Bey to the podium for this particular category? We all know 4 is Queen Bey’s favorite number and this is her fourth AOTY bid, and if she wins she’ll be just the fourth Black woman to triumph in this category… so maybe, just maybe, the stars may align for the “Cuff It” singer.

Below, I’ll try to make sense of the four biggest Grammy categories and figure out who will win, who should win, and who could be the dark horse.

Album of the Year

Nominees: Renaissance (Beyoncé), Harry’s House (Harry Styles), Un Verano Sin Ti (Bad Bunny), 30 (Adele), Good Morning Gorgeous (Mary J. Blige), Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers (Kendrick Lamar), Voyage (ABBA), In These Silent Days (Brandi Carlile), Music of the Spheres (Coldplay), Special (Lizzo).

All love to Coldplay and Lizzo, but I think it’s safe to say that they’re the least likely of the bunch to take this home. Lizzo had a successful year, but most of her commercial dominance and cultural ubiquity felt constrained to “About Damn Time” instead of Special as a whole. Music of the Spheres came and went without much fanfare; Coldplay will probably fare better in Best Pop Duo/Group Performance where they’re nominated for their BTS collaboration “My Universe.” Mary J. Blige and ABBA also don’t seem to have particularly strong shots to take this one home. While ABBA certainly overperformed on Nominations Day (they got three total nods this year including Record of the Year), they seem to be benefiting from prime alphabetical placement and their legend status over a genuine passion for the music. As for Mary, I’m getting serious Jay-Z/4:44 vibes. Back in 2018, the category lauded 4:44 with 8 nominations including Album, Record, and Song of the Year. Like Good Morning Gorgeous, 4:44 was a formidable late-career body of work that reminded general audiences of Mary’s longevity and ingenuity. Unfortunately, 4:44 went home empty-handed, and, while I don’t anticipate the same to happen to Good Morning Gorgeous, I think the album and its songs will fare better in the R&B categories.

Alright! Four down, six to go. This is where it starts to get tricky. I can see a viable path to the win for all of these albums. In addition to housing “As It Was,” the biggest song of 2022, Harry’s House spawned two other Top 10 hits (“Late Night Talking” and “Music for a Sushi Restaurant”) and anchored one of the year’s biggest tours. Harry picked up his first Grammy two years ago (Best Pop Solo Performance for “Watermelon Sugar”), and he did it against some pretty stiff competition. I definitely wouldn’t count him out here. Bad Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti is, in terms of hard numbers, the biggest and most-consumed album of 2022. His biggest obstacle will be the fact that the album is sung almost entirely in Spanish. I also find it curious that he failed to win this category at the Latin Grammys, so maybe he has less industry support than we may think. Who knows? I think the Best Pop Solo Performance nod for “Moscow Mule” shows that he has considerable support from pop voters, but he'll be splitting that voting bloc with Harry, Adele, Coldplay, and Beyoncé, so maybe we shouldn’t read into that too much.

Adele hasn’t lost a Grammy race since 2010 (notably, the last time she lost, Beyoncé was the winner of that category) and after sweeping the General Field for her last two records, it makes sense to anticipate that she’ll do it again with 30 and “Easy on Me.” Nonetheless, this time does feel a bit different. She has neither the biggest album nor the biggest song of the nominated works, but her music does have the broadest appeal. I’m not sure what to do with Adele this year. It feels weird to bet against her, but it just doesn’t seem like her year. Then again, it’s hard to ignore that track record and not take into account how she aligns with the image of popular music (gowns and ballads) that the Grammys have historically loved. As for Kendrick, Mr. Morale garnered a more tepid public reaction than his past bids for this category (Damn, To Pimp a Butterfly, the Black Panther soundtrack, etc.). Regardless, the album sold and streamed well and was hailed by critics, but, again, it just doesn’t feel like his year. There’s also Brandi Carlile who has become something of a Grammy darling in recent years. Considering the strength of the American roots voting bloc and how fractured the pop vote will be, she could possibly sneak in and win.

And then there was Bey. Renaissance is the most acclaimed album of the year, the album has the commercial success and accessibility that Lemonade lacked (at least in comparison to 25), and the Academy loves Bey. The narrative is there for her to win and the music absolutely warrants it, but after so many asinine choices, it still feels risky to declare her the victor. It also doesn’t help that she’s been MIA for the better part of the past year. There’s also the fact that although Renaissance is an album from the biggest star in the world, the record centers the Black queer roots of dance music and ballroom culture which narrows its appeal in comparison to 30, Harry’s House, or In These Silent Days.

Will Win: 30 (Adele)

Should Win: Renaissance (Beyoncé)

Dark Horse: In These Silent Days (Brandi Carlile)

Record of the Year

Nominees: “Bad Habit” (Steve Lacy), “As It Was” (Harry Styles), “Easy on Me” (Adele), “BREAK MY SOUL” (Beyoncé), “The Heart Part 5” (Kendrick Lamar), “Don’t Shut Me Down” (ABBA), “Good Morning Gorgeous” (Mary J. Blige), “Woman” (Doja Cat), “About Damn Time” (Lizzo), “You and Me on the Rock” (Brandi Carlile)

Honestly, this feels like Harry’s to lose — and for good reason. As the biggest song of the eligibility period, the nostalgia-soaked “As It Was” would be a worthy ROTY winner. It’s a genuinely great song that reflected the somber restlessness of the past year. He’s got the quality and the numbers to back up this win.

Outside of “As It Was,” I’d wager that Adele’s “Easy on Me” and Lizzo’s “About Damn Time” also have very strong chances to win. Adele is a two-time winner in this category, and “Easy on Me” is the kind of universally loved ballad that can transcend voting blocs and pull off a win. “About Damn Time” is similar to “As It Was” in that it’s a pop song with broad appeal, but the song also has the added bonus of Lizzo’s pull in the R&B committee (although that vote will be split between her, Mary, Steve Lacy, and Beyoncé). Speaking of Steve, his best bet for a win will be in Best Progressive R&B Album (where he’s nominated for Gemini Rights); Record of the Year will be tough to make happen considering how strong the competition and how messy vote splitting is likely to get.

I don’t see ABBA or Mary having a serious shot at winning this category, and the same goes for Brandi. Doja’s nod for “Woman” is the achievement, the song itself feels like very old news at this point. That leaves Beyoncé and Kendrick. “The Heart Part 5” lacks the pop appeal of Kendrick’s past bids in this category (“Humble” and “All the Stars”), and the fact that the song wasn’t even initially on Mr. Morale may muddy the waters. With a nod for “Break My Soul,” Beyoncé became the artist with the most nominations in this category (8), She’s yet to win Record of the Year, and I doubt “Break My Soul” will be the song to bring that trophy to her LA mansion. I just don’t see the Late Resignation narrative (in addition to the song’s acclaim and success, of course) being enough to make up for her two biggest genre voting blocs (pop and R&B) getting split across half of the other nominated songs.

Who Will Win: “As It Was” (Harry Styles)

Who Should Win: “As It Was” (Harry Styles)

Dark Horse: “About Damn Time” (Lizzo)

Song of the Year

Nominees: “Bad Habit” (Steve Lacy), “As It Was” (Harry Styles), “Easy on Me” (Adele), “BREAK MY SOUL” (Beyoncé), “All Too Well (10 Minute Version)” (Taylor Swift), “Just Like That” (Bonnie Raitt), “GOD DID” (DJ Khaled, Jay-Z, Lil Wayne, Rick Ross, Fridayy & John Legend), “abcdefu” (GAYLE), “About Damn Time” (Lizzo), “The Heart Part 5” (Kendrick Lamar)

As per usual, this year’s Song of the Year nominees has considerable overlap with the Record of the Year nominees. I think this race comes down to Harry, Adele, Beyoncé, and Taylor. Harry has the biggest song. Adele has won this category twice and ballads tend to do well here. Beyoncé, also a previous winner in this category, is competing with a song that struck a chord with people across all walks of life with its anthemic lyrics. Taylor, who has been hailed as her generation’s greatest songwriter, has curiously lost this category every time she’s been nominated. “All Too Well (10 Minute Version),” the updated version of her 2012 track hit No. 1 on the Hot 100, but it feels as if Taylor focused on campaigning the song’s accompanying music video more than the track itself. I reckon the Academy will give Midnights some love next year, so they might just make the nomination her reward… or they might be all in for “All Too Well” and give her the trophy, so she doesn’t throw a fit in another documentary (I kid, I kid).

I don’t think Bonnie has much of a chance here, but I wouldn’t necessarily be surprised to hear her name called when this category is presented. If GAYLE wins… so help us, God. Moving right along. Steve Lacy has a better shot than GAYLE or Bonnie, but less of a shot than Bey/Adele/Harry/Taylor. Do with that what you will. I also think Lizzo and Kendrick have stronger chances than Steve, but, again, vote-splitting is going to end up biting someone in the ass because of all this genre overlap. And what do we do with “God Did?” On the one hand, this is an opportunity for the Academy to award an actual good rap song in the General field (no, “This Is America,” does not count) and give flowers to both legends and newcomers. On the other hand, they could have just nominated the song to throw Jay a bone and secure some real star power for the telecast. It wouldn’t be a bad winner, but it would be a somewhat left-field one that I wouldn’t be mad at.

Will Win: “Easy On Me” (Adele)

Should Win: “Break My Soul” (Beyoncé)

Dark Horse: “As It Was” (Harry Styles)

Best New Artist

Nominees: Latto, Anitta, DOMi & JD Beck, Samara Joy, Tobi Nwigwe, Omar Apollo, MÅNESKIN, Molly Tuttle, Wet Leg, Muni Long

The key to understanding this category is knowing that jazz voters (as of the 2021 Grammys) make up 19% of Grammy voters. This means that they are the second-largest voting bloc (behind pop), which, in turn, bodes well for jazz nominees DOMi & JD Beck and Samara Joy. Latto had a banner year with the smash hit “Big Energy,” but her lack of a solid follow-up hit and vote-splitting with fellow rapper Tobi Nwigwe will likely stunt her chances.

Omar Apollo is also unlikely to take this one home. He’ll be splitting R&B votes with Muni Long and pop votes with Anitta, and his name recognition just might not be strong enough yet. Anitta has a very strong shot at taking this home, especially since she’s the closest thing to a pure pop artist for pop voters to throw their weight behind. She’s also not afraid of getting out there and campaigning, which always helps. American roots voters will back Molly Tuttle, but it may not be enough to lift her over nominees with broader appeal. As for MÁNESKIN, the Italian rockers will likely siphon votes from the rock and pop blocs, but I don’t foresee them winning either.

This leaves Muni Long and Wet Leg. Between her rich history as a successful cross-genre songwriter and her effective campaigning for the past year, I think Muni Long has a really great chance of garnering enough votes to take home her first Grammy. It also helps that she has two other nominations this year, including Best R&B Song and Best R&B Performance. Similarly, Wet Leg scored three total nominations at this year’s ceremony, and their self-titled debut album was one of last year’s most acclaimed releases on both sides of the pond. With a strong showing at the upcoming BRIT Awards with four nods and the lack of serious vote-splitting competition, they could eke out a win here as well. Truthfully, it’s anybody’s game.

Will Win: Wet Leg

Should Win: Samara Joy

Dark Horse: Muni Long